Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1677
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 20:53:00

ACUS11 KWNS 152051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152050=20
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-152315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1677
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...northeastern Nevada...northern Utah...southeastern
Idaho...and southwestern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152050Z - 152315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage and intensity through the
afternoon, posing a threat of dry microburst winds.  Convective
trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch.

DISCUSSION...A glancing influence from the shortwave trough to the
north is resulting in some large-scale ascent and an increase in
midlevlel winds this afternoon.  Initial storms are increasing in
coverage and intensity across northeastern Nevada, and this activity
is expected to spread east-northeastward through the afternoon into
southwestern Wyoming.  The 17Z DPG sounding characterizes the very
steep lapse rates (near dry adiabatic up to around 500 mb) in which
these storms are forming.  This environment will support very strong
downdrafts and dry-microburst potential.  Recent VWPs from Salt Lake
City indicate around 30 knots of mid-to-upper-level flow, which may
support some storm organization and propagation.  If storms are able
to organize into clusters, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
considered.

...Jirak/Smith.. 07/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7N7rfsPApC2l4Z3HHNE-0MLdOjyrII225fMg4725DIBXukGBtCpeOl1d0rHdPp7xGAr5JstcJ=
45NmrpAYZJBEdQoTfY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   40101509 41131563 41551557 42141453 42591280 42691177
            42721056 42490947 42030912 41490909 41070968 40621075
            39951253 39761437 40101509=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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