Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1676
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 20:14:00

ACUS11 KWNS 152013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152012=20
WYZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...eastern Idaho...southern Montana...and
northern/central Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152012Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon posing a risk of severe hail and winds.=20
Convective trends will be monitored for the possibility of a watch.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel trough (evident
over the northern Intermountain West in water vapor imagery) is
resulting in thunderstorm development over portions of eastern Idaho
and southwestern Montana.  As this ascent overspreads Wyoming where
better instability is developing, storms are expected to intensify
and organize later this afternoon into the evening.=20=20

Recent VWPs from the Pocatello radar indicate that midlevel westerly
flow has increased to around 40 knots as this disturbance
approaches.  Consequently, there should be enough shear for some
storm organization despite limited instability.  Steep midlevel
lapse rates may support some hail threat with the initial updraft
cores, but the primary threat will be severe winds, as these storms
are developing and moving into deep, well-mixed boundary layers.=20
This environment will favor strong evaporative cooling and
dry-microburst potential.  If storms are able to grow upscale into
clusters, a more organized severe-wind threat may materialize
warranting watch issuance.

...Jirak/Smith.. 07/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_UHmwS4R2oqnfD0vdXDfYTbCwi52kj8Wo3G_Vw-U5VApzYSEtfRV8NjqLMHNNaRnOhrSaEZI3=
knSmcJEyaLl_3o5P84$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

LAT...LON   44561268 45101147 45201070 45050968 44830815 44360701
            43650578 42670575 42350618 42230706 42500894 42781035
            43051165 43341238 44561268=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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