Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1675
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 19:59:02

ACUS11 KWNS 151958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151958=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1675
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...south-central South Dakota into much of central
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151958Z - 152230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will erupt across south-central South Dakota into
northern and west-central Nebraska in the next 1-2 hours, producing
large hail initially followed by damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...A cold front stretches from east-central SD into
western NE and far eastern CO, with a surface low over western NE.
Satellite imagery shows strong heating and building CU fields along
the front and near the low, and this is where initiation will occur.

Deep-layer lapse rates continue to steepen as a midlevel wave
approaches from the west, and surface temperatures warm. When
combined with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints, moderately strong
instability is noted with MLCAPE to around 3000 J/kg.

Modest westerlies aloft combined with a persistent southerly
boundary-layer winds will support southeastward-moving storms. A few
supercells producing damaging hail are possible initially, but an
evolution to severe MCS is anticipated from late afternoon through
evening. Corridors of significant wind damage may occur.

...Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9S2nZqwjw8-jBuYuJSRClpzN9IDqOJ8rr_b7ErBfi5quUBqynYkOJdyto9VkJfYjJpCrkDIkb=
jAbtd8gLpiD_F3n1FY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   43909938 44009862 43929795 43359777 42379803 41449862
            41409863 40849917 40470006 40460161 41180210 41870224
            42090219 42560171 43200035 43759964 43909938=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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