Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1674
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 17:49:29

ACUS11 KWNS 151749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151748=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-151945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1674
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...central Minnesota into northern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 151748Z - 151945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in coverage near the cold
front, with corridors of severe wind gusts possible, along with
sporadic hail.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front extending from the
Arrowhead southwestward into northeast SD, with a weak surface low
over central MN. Weak moisture convergence exists near the front and
low, with a moist air mass in place. Continued heating within cloud
breaks, and warming via advection out of the south will lead to a
long duration deepening moist boundary layer.

Storms have already formed over northeast MN into northern WI, where
low-level warm advection is currently maximized. A general increase
in storms is anticipated extending southwestward later this
afternoon, as more of the area becomes fully uncapped.=20

Hail cannot be ruled out with initial cell development, but overall
deep-layer shear will remain less than about 30 kt. Activity is
expected to merge/elongate along the entire boundary, which will
remain mostly parallel to the midlevel winds. With southwest winds
around 850 mb, this suggests a line of storms propagating in an
east/southeastward direction from late afternoon through early
evening.

...Jewell/Smith.. 07/15/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!96Lhv0hKw0Onb4b1A-px8mIZJYivMrDtDVb-itYvbg4IwhYT_5pVlMqwCRBnu0IXq3qSJGxex=
y9PnFvUS2Qv37oeQhs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46139085 45659264 45269407 45159492 45269546 45579558
            45919549 46359506 46689452 47169306 47419178 47409122
            47289078 47079036 46559035 46139085=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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