Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 13:32:21

AWUS01 KWNH 151331
FFGMPD
FLZ000-151803-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0697
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
930 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...Space-Coast...North-Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151330Z - 151803Z

Summary...Expanding coverage of thunderstorms containing very
heavy rainfall rates exceeding 4"/hr at times could drive
scattered flash flooding through 18z.

Discussion...Radar along the Space Coast depicts scattered
thunderstorms pivoting around a surface low (AL93), which
continues to drift inland towards the coastline. Within the most
intense convective cores -- some of which were exhibiting
backbuilding characteristics at times -- very heavy 3-4" rainfall
rates were estimated per MRMS.

Coverage of these intense rainfall rates are expected to increase
as a plume of very moist, unstable, and uncapped air (1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE and 2.2-2.3" PWATs) advects inland with the surface
low, which will align with weak 5 kt Corfidi vectors near the low
center to favor additional backbuilding/training thunderstorm
segments. The last 5-6 runs of the HRRR have consistently depicted
a corridor of 4-7 inches across the highlighted area. This could
breach the 3-4"/1-3 hr FFGs to support scattered instances of
flash flooding through 18z, especially atop sensitive urban areas
near the Space Coast.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-l9Xf_GYyJoK4CIUu_VZcVZ8LwX50cEddqkS5UJZJNpErBd3K4wi6Ej4em-LzuC-AT3k=
d0S7_W0vYVQfofkgBB2e9kA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   29598121 29058081 28688052 28398054 28218079=20
            28248127 28458170 28858192 29478171=20

=3D =3D =3D
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