Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 08:04:16

AWUS01 KWNH 150802
FFGMPD
MNZ000-151300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0694
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150800Z - 151300Z

SUMMARY...Intense training cells with 1.5-2"/hr rates and
localized 2-3" totals results in possible flash flooding through
the late overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV shows an very elongated but strong
shortwave at the nose of a 110kt strongly zonal jet streak cross
southwest Ontario; while a southern stream shortwave continues to
advance across South Dakota, strong WAA across eastern SD and
central MN has tightened a lingering stationary front across the
North Woods of MN from a weak surface wave near FSE across into
southwest Lake Superior.  South of the front strong low level
confluent and slowly ascending southeasterly veering to
southwesterly flow is convergent along the front.  Steep
isentropic ascent of unstable air with 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
given 7.5-8C/km lapse rates, but sufficiently moist (Tds in the
mid to upper 60s) and solid 700-500mb moisture, bringing RH values
over 70-90% to support some solid rainfall production along with
hail (DCAPEs generally below 500 J/kg).  Given the moisture
flux/loading in the low to mid profile solid 1.5-2"/hr rates are
probable given strength of flux and vertical ascent rates.

However, deep layer flow remains strong at the southern portion of
that jet speed max; WV suite and AMVs hint as some weak diffluent
flow along the right exit to offset and provide some divergence
aloft for updraft maintainance.  However, the key is the
convergence is long west to east and within deep westerly flow.=20
This will allow for training profiles across the area of concnern.
 Weak DCAPE and inflow from the south may allow for some southward
deflection due to propagation vectors, but there should be ample
time for some 2-4" totals to accumulate within the training band.=20
FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs are suggest this
rates/totals in relatively short duration would support a streak
of possible flash flooding conditions through northern MN through
to day-break.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_Wn5jM2fYiynx20lmzdCs9pIwZX5tIOU8OSLrKJZYyx0jVizo16h4dlkaki69ROEfyIS=
6sgy7gsJQ4g9av08UJ_6ZNU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   48599334 48389163 48189012 47928947 47589040=20
            47509057 47169129 47119218 47329385 47659553=20
            48529552=20

=3D =3D =3D
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