Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 15 2025 00:53:02

ACUS01 KWNS 150052
SWODY1
SPC AC 150051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late
evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight
from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota.

....Northern/central High Plains to northern MT...
Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO
should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust
threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist
into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast
ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds.

Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become
widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with
strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front.
Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated.
These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across
central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation
nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a
cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal
speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as
sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL
risk.

....Southeast AZ...
Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as
sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind
threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as
isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest.

...Grams.. 07/15/2025

$$

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