Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 14 2025 21:42:55

AWUS01 KWNH 142142
FFGMPD
NMZ000-150341-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0688
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
541 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142141Z - 150341Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms capable of isolated flash
flooding through sunset across the southern half of New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...WV satellite notes a weak shear axis bisecting the
southern half of NM this evening with widely scattered convection
littered over the region. Locally stronger storms have produced
some elevated totals within the Sacramento mountains this
afternoon, but outflows stemming from convection and allowed for
redevelopment to the west off the terrain. Across the eastern NM
Caprock, scattered heavy convection has produced pockets of rates
exceeding 1.5-2"/hr at times with a relatively slower cell motion
overall. Radar estimates within areas most impacted by heavier
precip have seen between 2-3" fall in a span of a few hrs. with
the most prominent flash flood reports over the Sacramento's near
the remnant burn scars around Ruidoso.

Environmental conditions are at least modestly favorable for
continued convective impacts over the next 3-5 hrs. before
dissipating with the loss of diurnal heating. Outflow generation
from any cell can help enhance any nearby convection and provide a
mechanism for other cells to develop within the instability axis
situated across the southern portion of the state. SBCAPE between
1000-2000 J/kg has been analyzed across the area with PWATs
hovering between 1-1.2", enough to put the area between the 75th
and 90th percentile for the daily climo.

Widely scattered nature of the convection will limit the overall
coverage of flash flood prospects, but isolated flash flood
concerns will persist through sunset with the best threat over the
terrain in south-central NM.

Kleebauer

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7HcsuN02jpxB5tOSNABPCQRpI2PZfIa4_kUDEzms0VJLJc7RgzgN99u2lRzHBBTxu6cr=
kiq8D0F55QtNDBo-PyihA3Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34970400 34890341 34490316 33850326 33450342=20
            33050382 32680486 32420559 32240600 32120638=20
            32150682 32200747 32340802 32770856 33310892=20
            33800871 34110752 34300675 34640575 34780486=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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