Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 14 2025 18:51:12 AWUS01 KWNH 141850 FFGMPD FLZ000-150048- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0686 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 249 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...South Florida Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 141848Z - 150048Z SUMMARY...Increasing threat of flash flooding across South Florida with the greatest potential centered over the urban corridor from West Palm Beach down through Miami. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaic across the Florida peninsula continues to show an expansion of convection over the interior with the northern periphery centered near Lake Okeechobee. Off the coast, a low-level circulation with a more defined tropical character continues to provide persistent onshore flow across the eastern FL coast leading to prominent moisture advection and enhanced low-level convergence within the western flank of the circulation. Recent mesoanalysis indicates an areal average of 2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE situated across South Florida, a formidable instability depiction when coinciding with PWATs hovering between 2.1-2.3" as noted via forecast soundings and 14z RAOB from KXMR (Cape Canaveral). Despite some areas within the immediate coast around KMIA observing south to southeast flow, deep layer mean flow is situated out of the northwest leading to steering pattern focusing inland convection moving back over the urban metro corridor between Port St. Lucie down into the Miami metro. Latest HRRR runs have been consistent in the presentation of the multi-cell cluster over the interior advancing southeastward towards the coastal plain with additional cell formations out ahead of the thunderstorm cluster. This evolution would likely pin a period of heavy rainfall across the metro corridor leading to increasing flash flood potential where run off capabilities are highest. Hourly rates between 2-3"/hr will be common considering the environment in place, but the bigger flash flood concerns will be correlated with intra-hour rates pushing between 3-5"/hr, especially if enacted over the urban zones aligning the southeast FL coastal plain. 12z HREF probabilities for >2"/hr were running between 70-90% for the period between 19-00z across the metro corridor, a signal high enough to warrant some localized flash flood prospects in areas hit the hardest. Totals between 2-4" will be common in the setup, but maxima between 5-7" are plausible when assessing some of the recent CAMs output, coincident with the current environment. Kleebauer ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4wjecQL_zXWscI0VUXGghylnIQ1WnA3YKWGO43sey-OKzu1EU8MjdZkQvQZ4hj1fefXO= EmBjRGaU9_HM_eXwWovfB50$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 27668082 27618058 27518020 27238004 27067997=20 26807990 26557996 26327997 26267997 25888008=20 25458022 25218044 25178063 25348078 25558081=20 25908080 26008081 26138080 26368079 26508083=20 26758090 26988103 27308105 27558095=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .