Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 14 2025 08:29:46

AWUS01 KWNH 140829
FFGMPD
NMZ000-141300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0682
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140830Z - 141300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered, slow moving thunderstorms capable of
localized 2-3" totals and possible flash flooding

DISCUSSION...RAP analysis shows a narrow corridor of conditionally
unstable air along the eastern side of larger scale ridge over the
desert Southwest.  MUCAPEs of 2000-3000 J/kg was slightly capped,
but generally confluent southerly and westerly low  to mid-level
flow provided sufficient deep layer convergence to break out
scattered strong thunderstorms from Union to Eddy county.  EIR
shows tops rapidly cooling below -65C indicative of the solid
higher theta-E air.  CIRA LPW shows a strong low-level moisture
gradient with pockets of enhanced 850-700mb moist in east-central
NM. Total PW values of 1-1.25"; focused in the lowest portion of
the profile and strong lower cloud vertical moisture flux will
continue to support solid rain-rates up to 1.5"/hr.

A strong shortwave rounding the southeast side of the larger scale
ridge is helping to have 700-500mb south to south-southwest
steering at about 5-10kts though sharp shift in upper-level flow
from southwest to northeast across the Cap Rock, may further slow
cell motions while having some oblique outflow for updraft
maintenance.  As such, a hour or two of slow moving cells may
allow for 1.5-2.5" localized totals which may exceed localized FFG
values of 1-1.5"/hr and 1.5-2.5"/3hrs, suggesting focused
incidents of flash flooding will be possible while the well of
unstable air is exhausted over the next few hours...however,
timing of weakening/disipation is very uncertain as very few if
any Hi-Res CAM guidance even suggested thunderstorms currently.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6dFnJgC-pn4-aXWA6Z2xj4uuyS1DvuQRu5WE-K6rpBrNhf7bK_5epOW4gUt8SEbXOqh2=
nwG61_et9u72DJak0gY4RG8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36330383 36200309 35370307 33760339 32720365=20
            32410426 32560483 32920504 33540506 35220461=20
            35850433=20

=3D =3D =3D
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