Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 14 2025 07:17:00

AWUS01 KWNH 140715
FFGMPD
TXZ000-141230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0680
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Heart of Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140715Z - 141230Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, efficient shallow convection near compact
mid-level circulation may result in localized 2-4" pockets over
wet grounds, posing small localized incidents of possible flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...KFWS and GOES-E 3.9um SWIR loop shows shallow but
organized line of convection across Hamilton to Hill county, TX
along the south and southwest quadrants of a 700-500mb vorticity
center.  VWP suite depicts this elongated wave well, including the
increase of 925-850mb slightly veered profile with 20-30kts of
increased flow.  Speed convergence along remnant boundary is
providing sufficient isentropic ascent along the northern MUCAPE
gradient with values of 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer moisture
(pooled below 700mb per CIRA LPW) at or above 2".  Fairly deep
warm cloud processes still have been producing 2-3"/hr rates and
given steering from 850-500mb is generally parallel or along-track
of the convergence boundary toward the center of the vorticity
center near the Dallas/Fort Worth Metro (per satellite imagery);
spots of quick 3-5" are possible over the next few hours.  Given
heavy rainfall/saturated grounds, FFG values from Ellis to San
Saba county are less than 2"/hr.  As such, localized flash
flooding is considered possible over the next few hours.

Uncertainty lies upstream across the Colorado River Valley;
surface to 850mb low level jet is less orthogonal to the deeper
layer shear axis aloft and almost parallel. However, the
anticyclonic turning of the LLJ responding to the mid-level
vorticity center may have some convergence along the eastern side
of the LLJ and support back-building toward the southwest of the
ongoing convective line.  Coverage should be more scattered in
nature IF cells do develop, but given even higher ground
sensitivity due to last evening's convection, have included it in
the area of concern though with a much lower probability and
higher uncertainty factor.   An upstream MPD should be forthcoming
for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grand Valley of
South-Central Texas.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9FiLunkAP7cXHmrMlQw2X0ShssTBCppDAUZJgaWvIN9k2j9b9jWmY53DmDoI19pPv7l-=
STqkBEJQuH_Xr7-CKh6I4LU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32979705 32829619 32269581 31669621 31249670=20
            30789811 30849875 31219892 31779873 32519798=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.