Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 14 2025 05:17:02

AWUS01 KWNH 140515
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0679
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
114 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...Eastern PA...Southern Upstate NY...Northwest
NJ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140515Z - 141000Z

SUMMARY...Slowly decaying MCS in proximity to complex terrain
continues to pose flash flooding risk through overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a SW to NE convective
line across the Poconos Mtns continuing a slow eastward
advancement, as MCV peels off northeastward into the lower Mohawk
Valley.  While the peak of heating/intensity is likely in the
past, the downstream environment across E PA/Delaware Valley
remains favorable to maintain convective activity with slow
weakening still likely.   RAP, VWP, CIRA LPW analysis notes solid
return moisture channel across the Mid-Atlantic into the Delaware
Valley becoming increasingly confluent with southwesterly warm
conveyor belt out of the Ohio Valley and through the Allegheny
Plateau.  This has brought a very deep, rich moisture environment
with total PWat values of 2-2.2" feeding on 10-15kts of confluent
inflow.  Fluxed air remains unstable and generally uncapped south
of the NY and PA/NJ common border with MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg,
though fingers of elevated MUCAPE to 500 J/kg still remains across
the Hudson River Valley but is more capped and is probable for the
reasoning of the erosion of convective activity toward the north;
while updrafts remain solid strong further south.  IR tops still
cooling through -60C and additional cells southward are likely to
maintain through at least the next few hours even as inflow
continues to weaken.=20=20

Given total moisture and vigor to updrafts, moisture flux to the
cells will continue to support rates of 1.5"/hr; occasionally
upticking toward 1.75-2" where some inter-band repeating/training
occurs given cell motion is northeast fairly parallel to the
orientation of the line.  Propagation to the south and southeast
will limit those durations and localized totals of 2-3" remain
possible.  Complex/steep terrain of the Poconos, Catskills and
rugged NW NJ will remain at enhanced risk of excessive runoff and
likely incidents of flash flooding especially early (next 1-3
hours), slowly reducing in magnitude/coverage by 08-10z across far
Southern NY/NE NJ with a much lower probability of reaching the
NYC Metro area by dawn.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-8TNeizDRaGNTuUN8OgUHx18i-ulK-8JOYVz9fTaaWmQ1mktISlsOm2tyhw4yW02dzkd=
raXMjYG0lrDLBmYIDsZFQws$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON   42447436 42217381 41747376 41297403 40967430=20
            40707458 40417495 40007573 40217652 40657675=20
            41157657 41887580 42407509=20

=3D =3D =3D
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