Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1665
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 13 2025 22:48:12

ACUS11 KWNS 132248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132247=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-140045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0547 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...far northeastern Nebraska...eastern South
Dakota...southwestern Minnesota...northeastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132247Z - 140045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated risk for damaging wind and large hail with storms
through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed as weak forcing for ascent
has overspread a cold front/stationary front extending from Nebraska
into central Minnesota. The air mass ahead of the boundary is moist
and very unstable, with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and dew
points in the upper 60s. Deep layer shear around 30 kts and steep
low-level lapse rates will be sufficient for a few organized cells
to pose a risk for damaging wind and large hail. Overall, guidance
suggests storm coverage will remain fairly isolated amid weak upper
forcing and warmer mid-level temperatures. As such, the isolated
nature of the threat will preclude watch issuance.

...Thornton/Thompson.. 07/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6KpG0txHcfdl5XC0IMMeDwrGA1HHOSSHEzQQasrQ7NxAmkZOFxaTXV2f0ypD5lIxiNjqoPc_p=
V2JxM_UmpDmeuvDgC8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   45779370 44709358 43489529 42809648 42339727 42649854
            44499764 45409675 45949593 46309516 46209424 45779370=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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