Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1663
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 13 2025 20:40:42

ACUS11 KWNS 132039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132038=20
NMZ000-AZZ000-132315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132038Z - 132315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon and into the evening, posing a severe wind
risk.  A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over the high terrain this
afternoon across the region.  While moisture is meager for this time
of year, it is sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
robust updrafts.  The 18Z Tucson sounding represents the
characteristic well-mixed, inverted-V sounding profiles across the
region.  Certainly, this environment will support dry-microburst
potential for the strongest storms.  With northeasterly midlevel
flow expected to increase this afternoon and evening, a more
organized wind threat could develop and move south-southwestward off
the higher terrain.  Convective trends will continue to be monitored
for the possibility of watch issuance.

...Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-PCRI6rx20kXwQx1bRX27EY9vqDnkFSgfCHst03Z8Y0-TDdVohK7C8bvSHgqEb_UyO4eVbKAi=
NpqV8v1uto1dcTy1Kk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   33980977 33830876 33570786 33230767 32500760 32060779
            31780818 31430855 31340940 31361050 31461089 31861121
            32191135 32561134 33451099 33980977=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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