Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1662
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 13 2025 19:42:11

ACUS11 KWNS 131942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131941=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-132115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1662
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern VA...central MD...the
eastern WV Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131941Z - 132115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind remains possible through late
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convection across MD and eastern VA has
generated a westward-moving outflow approaching central VA.
Meanwhile, other storms have developed this afternoon along/east of
the Blue Ridge. Deep-layer flow is quite weak across the region,
resulting in generally disorganized storms. However, strong heating
of a very moist airmass (PW around 2 inches) has resulted in MLCAPE
increasing above 3000 J/kg in areas outside of convective outflow.
The large PW and favorable buoyancy will support a threat of
localized wet microbursts, both with storms along the
westward-moving outflow, and the storms moving slowly eastward off
of the Blue Ridge. Outflow collisions may result in brief upticks in
storm intensity through the remainder of the afternoon.

...Dean/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Ya6xst7IHzmTHyObEM8Kfh0Y9t8hKxDQ8NLbQlBNczYYXRm-guMxw2oFQiIjM5Q3-DrQgNBV=
IfhDNi69Gq9fxVyMEI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   37087924 37287915 38457862 39607818 39677813 39657761
            39627756 38717763 37807778 37437785 36807772 36917839
            36877871 36787934 37087924=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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