Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1661
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 13 2025 19:16:55

ACUS11 KWNS 131915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131914=20
FLZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...eastern Florida peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131914Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing and
moving southward through the afternoon posing an isolated damaging
wind threat.  A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the eastern
peninsula of Florida in a very moist and unstable environment.=20
While the deep-layer flow/shear is weak (per XMR 15Z sounding),
there does appear to be enhanced north-northwesterly low-level flow
likely associated with the midlevel low off the east coast of
Florida.  As a result, 0-3 km northerly shear is around 20 knots
(per MLB VWP), which is at least modestly supportive of
southward-propagating clusters capable of producing severe, damaging
wind gusts through the afternoon.  The localized, isolated nature of
the threat will preclude watch issuance.

...Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Kh31Pvlb30yYXcrqfvGliAjMjIbiqrWHRtH8SKpb6kOQ7LeQm7Ek2nXHyJOEjMCV45NqmH0e=
6BveUt9ptV03wey5fg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   27188072 27988127 28728176 29518220 30008236 30348178
            30398133 30078116 29118082 28618055 28138042 27338026
            27148019 27188072=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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