Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 11 2025 20:50:13

AWUS01 KWNH 112049
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-120247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0648
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast WY, northeast CO, &
southwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112047Z - 120247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to increase in
number across the area, with a couple showing backbuilding
character.  Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible.

Discussion...Upslope flow behind a pair of fronts moving south,
down the east side of the Rockies is leading to moistening in the
central High Plains.  Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8" exist
per VAD wind profiles.  CIN is reducing at this time, and ML CAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg is approaching the region from the northeast,
likely due to cooling at 700 hPa and moistening of the column from
that direction.  Effective bulk shear of 20-35 kts exists in this
region, sufficient for convective organization.=20

The guidance appears to develop a convective complex in the short
term near the CO/WY border that moves through a region of 700 hPa
temperature difluence east-southeast across northeast CO,
potentially tracking across a small pocket of convection
occasionally backbuilding near the NE/CO border.  Given the
environmental parameters, such as moisture and instability
increasing over the next several hours, this evolution makes
sense.  However, the possible thunderstorm complex track could end
up being steered more southerly across northeast CO, so extended
the region a little south of the mesoscale guidance which is close
to where recent RAP guidance has indicated 700 hPa convergence.=20
Such a complex should be capable of hourly rain amounts to 2" and
local amounts to 4", which given the flash flood guidance values
in the region, could produce widely scattered to scattered flash
flooding where cells train or mesocyclones manage to form.

Roth

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9q68Y-tpGDBpPwpBbrsxeLz8sdq6iSYY2-e-Rk3Q2K9mJW5jHeqrWz4UVw2Ih5LE56Dm=
0GzI6gklGB-wy67omucQgjk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON   41570451 41430300 40850196 39810223 39840393=20
            40500546 41120617 41450587=20

=3D =3D =3D
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