Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1642
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 11 2025 18:28:40

ACUS11 KWNS 111828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111827=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-112030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...Parts of MN into eastern SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111827Z - 112030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage early this
afternoon across west-central MN, in the vicinity of a cold front.
Additional building cumulus and initial storm development has
recently been noted along/ahead of the front across north-central
MN. Additional storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
front this afternoon as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across southern SK/MB and ND and approaches the region from the
west.=20

The strongest mid/upper-level flow associated with the approaching
shortwave will lag behind the front, resulting in relatively weak
deep-layer shear along/ahead of the front. This will tend to limit
storm organization to some extent, but moderate to locally strong
buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will support a threat
of isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms this
afternoon.

...Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!53li2tBuULNP06mpxmImWL3FHLIrG9doahsUgUvKtRjyax6Y8cFxbZ2ZaDjkvLCErGQ7M0_r_=
0kokKv-KCHbgGcAgOE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45389362 44229458 43629557 43259706 43349846 43649861
            43839831 44459720 45259629 45789599 46269561 47619498
            48879501 49259502 49359479 48629224 48319156 46699259
            45389362=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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