Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1638
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 11 2025 03:53:02

ACUS11 KWNS 110352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110351=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-110545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Southwest/Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503...

Valid 110351Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 503
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to spread across
much of southwestern/central Iowa in association with a larger
complex of storms.

DISCUSSION...South Dakota/Nebraska short-wave trough is progressing
steadily east late this evening. In response to this feature, 1km
VAD winds are increasing across eastern KS into northwestern MO.
This appears to be aiding some upscale growth to a larger complex of
storms that extends across eastern NE into western IA. Over the last
hour or so, a notable increase in updraft intensity is ongoing
across Shelby/Pottawattamie County IA, and an expanding precip
shield is becoming a bit more conducive for surging outflow with
this activity. Given the large-scale support, and focused warm
advection, this MCS should continue propagating across the remainder
of ww503 over the next several hours.

...Darrow.. 07/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!56PMFiu2c2id4fT8Kh4YNAmorBE9PwlLQJO5W8_XhnXM4mJHiF6IPrOd7E-hQGZCqOOu7fNS0=
DGNI8hR0x0S1Fv5YAc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41629734 42329348 40739348 40049732 41629734=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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