Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1637
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 11 2025 03:36:47

ACUS11 KWNS 110336
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110336=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-110530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1637
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 110336Z - 110530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong-severe thunderstorms will spread across
portions of northern Illinois over the next several hours. Gusty
winds and isolated hail are the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the
upper Midwest late this evening. Large-scale ascent appears to be
influencing a larger complex of storms that has matured across much
of northern Illinois. Additionally, low-level warm advection appears
to be aiding this MCS as it tracks along the north side of a
boundary, currently draped from near LAF-DVN. Latest MRMS data
suggests a few hail cores are noted within the stronger updrafts
along the southwestern flank of this complex, especially over
southeastern Mercer County and Bureau County. Even so, hail is most
likely on the order of 1 inch, or less. MCS should propagate
east-southeast over the next several hours with an attendant risk
for locally strong winds and isolated hail.

...Darrow.. 07/11/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5aBAtFvA870LwVwfXlXAsTNCF5so6Wlzc4Ubwo52XU-Ozkp8voc7ZRRi5MzUMSKfg1m3cgHkw=
BZcCuAPBDoOC2ojdIo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41518915 41278769 40358816 40969025 41509073 41518915=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.