Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 11 2025 00:42:17

ACUS01 KWNS 110042
SWODY1
SPC AC 110040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN
NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible
this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper
Midwest.  This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of
storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the
eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity.

....01Z Update...
A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow
across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper
Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a
bit, this evening into the overnight hours.  In mid-levels, this
includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic
circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a
south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level
troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies.
The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm
advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska,
where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale
this evening.  Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic
perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the
question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing
inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by
sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight.  If this
occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to
support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts.

...Kerr.. 07/11/2025

$$

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