Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1636
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 10 2025 23:58:13

ACUS11 KWNS 102356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102356=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-110200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...eastern Colorado...western Kansas...far southern
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502...

Valid 102356Z - 110200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 502
continues.

SUMMARY...Instances of severe wind and hail remain possible in
WW502.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of storms continue across far eastern
CO into western KS/NE. Storms are within a region of increasing
MLCIN. Above the inversion, elevated instability remains for storms
rooted above the surface. Storms are likely elevated and will mainly
pose a risk for large hail, though some more surface based storms
may produce occasional severe winds, primarily across northeastern
Colorado where MLCIN is weaker and deep layer shear around 40-50 kts
remains for organization.

...Thornton.. 07/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4bcZ9hB4CfQwdyDFPrnyWes0TDHAFc6gayIylVoTsn0Lb19BsTVIuc5DXv8ChMaY4GbNlx8yw=
qhoC0uIqQls9Ue75Bs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37080418 37680334 38190314 38590314 39080304 39210309
            39850389 40230430 40460454 40850423 40820262 40670221
            40420172 39920089 39030059 37690109 37060166 36610212
            36440277 36450350 36560387 37080418=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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