Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1629
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 10 2025 18:00:44

ACUS11 KWNS 101800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101800=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-102000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Georgia into southern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101800Z - 102000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of regionally higher wind damage potential may
be emerging as thunderstorm clusters spread east into a very buoyant
air mass. A weak kinematic environment will limit the overall severe
threat, watch issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KJGX in central GA shows
consolidating outflow boundaries beginning to emerge as multicell
thunderstorms begin to slowly grow upscale. Additionally, latest
GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures indicative of
convective intensification. Over the next few hours, one or two more
robust/consolidated convective clusters may emerge as cold pools
continue to amalgamate and as storms migrate into a regional
buoyancy maximum (MLCAPE recently analyzed as high as 3000 J/kg) and
towards the GA/SC coast. Regional VWPs continue to sample very weak
(15 knots or less) westerly flow and poor deep-layer wind shear.
This will modulate storm intensity/organization and limit the
overall severe threat; however, the thermodynamic environment is
supportive of damaging downburst winds. As storm coverage increases
with the potential emergence of one or more clusters, the
probability of damaging gusts should increase as well.

...Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!50nlSRGEEb5-gFf-cyUaFiwvYhJzA93mH2ipZFeIiOV1dRaR0UbZq5iuP_X_jOz3yI5pq6IK_=
R_c19fox83FiZ6Me34$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32378428 33148399 33308378 33418350 33408068 33338046
            33208022 33037993 32887977 32747978 32647987 32528007
            32438024 32298044 32188060 32088074 31918092 31738105
            31438125 31338142 31328163 31348174 31988407 32178428
            32378428=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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