Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1628
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 10 2025 17:55:44

ACUS11 KWNS 101755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101755=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...much of northern and eastern Iowa into a small part
of western Wisconsin and Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101755Z - 102030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may develop along the southern periphery of the
clouds/south of the MCV, with hail or brief tornado risk. The area
is being monitored, but a watch is not expected in the short term.

DISCUSSION...A prominent MCS is moving across southern MN, with an
impressive upper-level outflow presentation on satellite. Meanwhile,
lower clouds continue to rotate in cyclonic fashion.

Areas of low to midlevel confluence likely exist around the MCV,
though only a weak pattern of surface convergence is currently
observed. However, strong heating over much of IA south of the MCV
is leading to expanding CU fields, with a weak boundary from
north-central into eastern IA. CAM solutions are quite variable, but
it is plausible that storms, perhaps supercells, could develop later
this afternoon as temperatures warm further. LCLs will be low, and
low-level shear should remain sufficient to support a brief tornado,
given a supercell.

...Jewell/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wvRVtfBP-6Fc7-fRE0ZEY77u_2adJ25XigCMYzTGhvW_zzm6d8S86vxazVMXPzy4_dK6xJU2=
A5BmmXeBNetU8Udr0Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   41269044 41529183 42099335 42469488 42789510 43209495
            43549402 43639313 43569206 43289097 42879024 42268981
            41778971 41318994 41269044=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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