Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1622
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 10 2025 00:35:39

ACUS11 KWNS 100035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100035=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1622
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

Valid 100035Z - 100230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong-severe convection will spread across central and
eastern portions of ww499 over the next several hours. Damaging
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...An elongated corridor of organized convection is
progressing across the Middle Atlantic early this evening. This
activity is shifting east at roughly 20kt, which would allow the
leading edge of the squall line to move off the NJ Coast shortly
after 02z. Strongest convection should remain focused across the
southern half of the watch where considerably more instability
persists. 00z sounding from WAL supports this with roughly 2400 J/kg
MLCAPE, but lapse rates are quite weak due to very moist profiles.
Even so, strong downdrafts, due to water loading, remain possible as
PW values are on the order of 2.25 inches.

...Darrow.. 07/10/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9T8G3FMqwUELG0w6EecRUU9Vk1kFsgNIAsk6T9MAa1yO1L7RoM4XnXULrVvXwoW3SpRp-UVZx=
N8Y44V3CAE6GhZR97c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37977711 40627546 40637318 37977491 37977711=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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