Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1618
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 09 2025 19:49:10

ACUS11 KWNS 091949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091948=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1618
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Idaho into southern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091948Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe gusts will become an increasing concern as at least
scattered thunderstorms develop and mature through the afternoon. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Deepening CU over eastern ID/southern MT are indicating
attempts at thunderstorm initiation atop a destabilizing boundary
layer with eroding convective inhibition. 19Z mesoanalysis shows
boundary-layer lapse rates already reaching 9 C/km in some spots,
with 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. RAP forecast soundings indicate a dry
boundary layer extending to 500 mb, which is being overspread by
stronger mid-upper level flow and 30 kts of effective bulk shear
(i.e. straight hodographs indicating speed shear). Organized,
high-based multicells should traverse portions of the the northern
Rockies, accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat. If confidence
increases in greater coverage of severe gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch may be needed.

...Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4cFXVQU-ku-sUVHB83ZBPOPd1Wmgrnkl3bJ-cz8e4ujn6xNnmbmDNHO_rbyDW-xvkBoQOqqqf=
x6v5hQzEbFS0g_TiOY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON   45111508 46501254 47021071 47090875 46540812 45790811
            45150871 44900926 44541039 44241175 44011271 43841336
            43811402 43871457 45111508=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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