Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1615
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 09 2025 17:27:37

ACUS11 KWNS 091727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091726=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...South Carolina into far eastern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091726Z - 091930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are developing in an environment
supportive of strong to severe downburst winds. This threat should
remain relatively brief/isolated; watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Deep convection is rapidly developing from
south-central GA into portions of SC within a weak low-level
confluence zone and along a strengthening sea-breeze boundary. This
comes as temperatures quickly warm into the low 90s within a very
moist environment. Morning guidance has largely displayed a 3-5 F
cool and dry bias across the region so far today, which has resulted
in initiation slightly earlier than anticipated as well as SBCAPE
values upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg. Observed dewpoint depressions on
the order of 15 F suggest that LCLs are likely at around 1 km AGL
with near-surface lapse rates on the order of 7-8 C/km. This
combination of extreme buoyancy atop a shallow low-level
dry-adiabatic layer should promote strong, water-loaded downdrafts
capable of damaging/severe downburst winds (most likely between
40-60 mph) through late afternoon. Very weak flow over the region
(generally less than 15 knots per regional VWPs) will favor
disorganized multicells with limited duration. Consequently, the
short-range predictability and coverage of damaging winds will
remain limited and precludes watch issuance.

...Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6L3mEgE6XhZXvB0llnpmm2Ql7BTn-_rHpymmkitJNeA84g9dHppY5soy2ZoEoAbnKlF9qysII=
WvRlA140GaOiHYj-YM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   32198060 31918100 31548123 31228136 30958153 30868198
            31008235 31238274 31468310 31768330 32318335 33318296
            34278211 34468175 34508139 34348035 34218002 34077982
            33907972 33757972 32198060=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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