Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1611
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 22:58:48

ACUS11 KWNS 082258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082258=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-090030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Southern Kansas...northern Oklahoma and far
southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082258Z - 090030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and severe wind gusts
will remain possible for the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered thunderstorms have been intensifying
along an east-west corridor in southern KS this afternoon, where a
warm/moist boundary layer and steep deep-layer lapse rates are in
place. While low-level flow is weak, around 25-30 kt of midlevel
northerly winds (per ICT VWP) are supporting transient updraft
organization. The environment will continue to support severe
downbursts and isolated large hail with the stronger storms for the
next couple hours, though the risk is expected to remain too
sporadic for a watch.

...Weinman/Hart.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7MS_rjkeBkROPRVNLxqCJwATbO8mtmHTUY7hVrUZzacYCXJVSmPH0mky9kyBXJnZWqKHDpKwn=
FUhMWoDQCpqsCrbHJA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37929419 37679368 37179365 36799388 36579518 36849997
            37090054 37380082 37970099 38240075 38410022 38429913
            38109675 37929419=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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