Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1607
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 19:33:55

ACUS11 KWNS 081932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081932=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

Valid 081932Z - 082130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
continues.

SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms is showing signs of
intensification; the damaging wind potential is expected to increase
over the coming hours as the line of storms approaches the I-95
corridor.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES IR imagery shows steady cloud-top cooling
of individual cells embedded within a developing convective band as
convection begins moving off of the higher terrain and into a very
buoyant air mass in place downstream across the Mid-Atlantic. Latest
RAP mesoanalysis estimates suggest that MLCAPE ahead of the
developing line has increased to around 2500 J/kg as surface
temperatures warm into the mid 90s. Additionally, regional VWPs are
sampling 20-30 knot mid-level winds, which is supporting slightly
stronger deep-layer bulk shear values than depicted by recent
RAP/mesoanalysis estimates, which should contribute to better
organization and longevity of the developing band. Consequently, the
intensification trend is expected to continue as storms spread east
over the next few hours. As this occurs, the potential for
damaging/severe winds should also increase as cold pool
consolidation/organization continues. Recent storm track estimates
suggest that this activity should reach the I-95 corridor roughly
during the 20-22 UTC time frame, which should be when diurnal
heating and MLCAPE magnitudes will be maximized.

...Moore.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-rU3R0DwNJgwAMvBJWK9ZCxqeTxmdDd2z9K3XchaIOnIxvj-iuQDblY9FtjKWgM6Kdj84g2Yz=
tz5d6-OMv8my6UtAeQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38437874 38957796 39227759 39627729 40067692 40537652
            40807588 40967487 40947461 40857453 40727450 40457456
            39967487 39517514 39147544 38777586 38487620 38317666
            38167729 38107785 38067830 38087863 38137882 38257882
            38437874=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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