Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1605
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 18:05:02

ACUS11 KWNS 081804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081804=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-082000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1605
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...the central Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081804Z - 082000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage should increase through late
afternoon with a few embedded strong/severe thunderstorms across the
central Carolinas. The severe threat should remain too limited to
warrant watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are in the early stages of development
along a weak trough/confluence zone from central GA into central SC
with additional convection beginning to deepen off the southern
Appalachians in the western Carolinas. Strong diurnal heating across
the Carolinas, combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the mid
70s, is supporting a plume of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE along the
Carolina coast into central NC per recent mesoanalysis estimates.
The high moisture content of the air mass will promote strong
water-loaded downdrafts, and lapse rates around 8 C/km within the
lowest 1-2 km should facilitate downward momentum transfer.
Consequently, strong to severe downburst winds appear possible -
especially across central NC where the best overlap of MLCAPE,
low-level lapse rates, and theta-e deficits should emerge by late
afternoon. Despite the very favorable buoyancy, any appreciable
deep-layer flow remains displaced well to the north, which will
promote mostly disorganized single-cell and multicell convection.
This will largely limit the duration and short-term predictability
of any appreciable severe threat.

...Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4z6hCECZ2HP37HWUxQ8DYnswUJ7sM8eBBnRCiZYLCUDGMsFqBWvpOViKh88wKmtr-F9MxRtf6=
-S3GG4RgH82cum-SnQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   33308112 33478144 33818159 36068115 36408090 36498058
            36507997 36477790 36217773 35757772 35237779 34717804
            34127853 33777894 33407930 33147963 33098005 33158054
            33308112=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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