Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1604
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 16:58:14

ACUS11 KWNS 081657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081657=20
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-081900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1604
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081657Z - 081900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will pose a severe
hail and wind risk across part of New England this afternoon. Storm
coverage is expected to remain sufficiently limited to preclude
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...GOES IR imagery and MRMS vertically integrated liquid
show steady intensification of weak thunderstorms across southern NY
ahead of a diffuse cold front. Further growth of these cells is
expected over the next several hours as temperatures continue to
warm and bolster MLCAPE through late afternoon. Upstream VWPs
recently sampled 20-35 knot mid-level winds associated with a weak
impulse approaching the New England region. The arrival of this
perturbation through peak heating will help elongate hodographs and
promote some increase in storm organization/longevity, and may
support a weak supercell or two. Consequently, some threat for
severe hail (most likely near/below 1.25 inch in diameter) may be
emerging if discrete modes can be maintained. Otherwise, the primary
hazard will remain strong to severe downburst winds, especially if
more organized clustering can occur. In general, nebulous forcing
for ascent will likely limit overall storm coverage and should
negate the need for a watch, though convective trends will be
monitored.

...Moore/Thompson.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8CUckvOyIvWBG6DZp_L7oUg9X1Bmjui3cN4GHj2oC9I-gzY7w1rwIVhEURFosPxiBJEK738wU=
McKXcUskj6cjjRuygk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON   41267225 41137343 41257386 41427424 42087413 42317369
            42497284 42717078 42437053 42107038 41937038 41737033
            41597040 41527058 41267225=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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