Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 07:28:32 ACUS03 KWNS 080727 SWODY3 SPC AC 080726 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic. .... Synopsis ... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest Minnesota. .... Central Plains ... By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time, the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area -- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level 1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time. .... Northern Plains ... Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said, given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should convection initiate. .... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ... Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2 inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage. ...Marsh.. 07/08/2025 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .