Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1602
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 06:59:30

ACUS11 KWNS 080659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080659=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-080830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...South-central IA...northwest MO...northeast
KS...far southeast NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

Valid 080659Z - 080830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.

SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind remains possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing early this morning
from south-central IA into northwest MO and northeast KS.
Low/midlevel flow and deep-layer shear are generally rather weak,
and there has been a continued tendency for the gust front to
outpace the deeper convective cores. However, even with this
configuration, a relatively expansive cold pool is supporting
occasional strong gusts, with a 51 kt gust recently observed at St.
Joseph, MO.=20

With CINH increasing downstream, a gradual weakening trend is
expected to continue overnight, but some threat for strong to
locally severe gusts may persist early this morning near and just
behind the southeastward-moving outflow/gust front.

...Dean.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9dMnGyBzJkZGIAmzZ9EHMIw5814uy8JmqWDFNaEzTxE4mpg7Eg8D8PIXDeBSYAFleeyPU25Uh=
UR-tQVzhuQBTdjUCSw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39619750 39769742 40199703 40109638 39829518 40549407
            41759342 41769283 41389250 40149277 39109365 38879526
            39459716 39619750=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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