Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1601
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 03:46:55

ACUS11 KWNS 080345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080344=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-080515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southwest Iowa...southeast Nebraska and far
northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

Valid 080344Z - 080515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging gusts may spread a little
southeast of the current watch.  The need for a downstream watch
into Missouri is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has evolved into a somewhat
organized/bowing segment that has recently produced measured gusts
up to 67 mph in the Omaha area.  Local radar images suggest that
convective outflow is several miles ahead of the primary convective
cores, with a 40-50 kt rear inflow signature.  The orientation of
the low-level shear vectors ahead of the convection suggests that an
anafrontal configuration should be maintained with very gradual
weakening of the storms over time.  However, there is still
potential for isolated damaging/severe outflow gusts which could
spread a couple of counties southeast of the current watch
configuration.  Given the expectation for gradual weakening
overnight, the need for a new/downstream watch into MO is somewhat
uncertain.

...Thompson.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9R4n_yh2N6HX9Q5VTaAA-JdjlMmn5nJ2_sCXwbnTgzAS1zWTIyBj0_e8PAn0IjDxeApvmbjKb=
soOf9w0e9JNEHXNYZo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41059552 41529503 41439457 41129426 40669439 40439460
            40099537 40029606 40269669 40739675 40869649 41059552=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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