Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1600
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 08 2025 01:04:57

ACUS11 KWNS 080104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080104=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-080230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southeast CO...southwest KS...and parts of the
northern OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 080104Z - 080230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts may accompany an evolving small line of
storms as it tracks eastward tonight.

DISCUSSION...A small line of storms has emerged out of colliding
outflow boundaries in southeastern CO. Around 40 kt of
line-orthogonal effective shear and steep deep-layer lapse
rates/sufficient surface-based buoyancy may support the maintenance
of this line with eastward extent. Gradual nocturnal cooling and a
limited low-level mass response cast uncertainty on overall
longevity, though recent convective trends suggest some potential
for severe wind gusts as it tracks eastward tonight. The risk may
remain too localized for a watch, though trends are being monitored.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 07/08/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9mFtZBkBr-bUP6loV5h5DusLfYU8ROahJ0XNZXsW57BAvOs0pMsjeEzH-YuUbNzWpVq4BajBd=
fY8NfEx5OxsCGfcYnQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36870318 37380353 37880347 38260311 38330257 38260142
            37940092 37200091 36770137 36680238 36870318=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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