Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 23:43:11 AWUS01 KWNH 072343 FFGMPD TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-080500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0616 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 742 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Western Kentucky...Northwest Tennessee... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 072345Z - 080500Z SUMMARY...Broader overturning along/southeast of outflow boundaries may support short-term repeating/training & possible mergers allowing for localized 2-4" totals and possible flash flooding into early overnight period. DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/EIR and RADAR animation depicts a mature convective complex with strong outflow boundary crossing southeast MO. Stronger deep layer convergence across a moderately unstable environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE has resulted in a few bands of stronger/broader convective overturning of the unstable air across Southwest KY and Northwest TN. Visible loops show cells have oriented along some older either confluence or outflow boundaries that extend eastward generally parallel to deeper layer steering flow. Aloft, there is a col in upper-level flow as the far northern periphery of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell that can be seen over the northwest Gulf south of LA with edge over N MS, while northern stream shortwave cross MO, with entrance to polar jet in the vicinity. This has maximized upper-level divergence in W KY/NW TN to further aid convective organization.=20 Deep layer confluence into the northern stream through the Lower Ohio Valley has maximized total PWat values over 2", perhaps nearing 2.25". This will make cells very efficient with deep warm cloud processes supporting 2-2.5"/hr rates (with an isolated 3"/hr spot possible). Given deep layer flow into the northern stream is also fairly parallel to the aforementioned confluence boundary and slowly sagging cold front crossing the Ohio River; some repeating and training is possible over the next few hours. That increased duration may support some streaks of 2-4" totals in less than 3hrs. Given FFG values of 2-3"/3hrs across the area, this suggests localized flash flooding is considered possible.=20=20 Convection should wane with loss of daytime heating and overturning of the unstable air, but may still intersect remaining untapped unstable air eastward, but overall trends should slowly diminish after dark. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9iYO8hfpUaXS4snmiOwhNV-Z_sYnu2KoinrE6r-3d47E3mPyoRpJVKawnvngE4SEKV6K= 3IXWLH8j1oBjCKus0Y_YZ0A$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH... ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC... LAT...LON 37538612 37148574 36718575 36408604 36148661=20 35908809 35858892 36128940 36468938 36838891=20 37108843 37498702=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .