Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 23:11:40

AWUS01 KWNH 072311
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0615
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southeastern OH...Western & Northern
WV...Southwest PA...Western MD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072310Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Favorable orientation for some short-term training
moving through rugged terrain/low FFG.  Rates of 1.5-2"/hr and
localized totals to 2-3" pose possible localized incidents of
flash flooding through early overnight.

DISCUSSION...Long-term Visible loop shows a corridor of agitated
Cu field that narrowed into a linear feature that is shaped like
an older outflow boundary and connects back up to the main frontal
convection across western PA.  As stronger moisture convergence
near a weak surface wave in southwest OH has matured into a larger
cluster of stronger cells with embedded rates of 1.5-2"/hr given
ample available moisture.  Surface Tds into the low 70s and
enhanced low level confluent flow through the Ohio Valley noted in
CIRA LPW, has resulted in total PWats in near or just below 2" and
with solid 20kt inflow and modest but sufficient divergence aloft
at the far periphery of the right entrance of 30-50kt upper level
jet (solid ageostrophic response).

Cells are likely to remain fairly organized with about 25kt of
effective bulk shear.  Fairly deep unidirectional flow through the
steering level is parallel to the bow westward of this apparent
older boundary like feature.  As such, there is enough convective
development to suggest a few hours of repeating/training potential
even with some progressive nature to the convection (20-25kts of
mean flow).  Additionally, propagation vectors appear to be weak
and along flow regime, but some outflow boundaries may still kick
ideal training axis a bit south probably to some benefit to reduce
higher overall totals.

As such, the potential for a streak or two of 2-3" totals are
probable.  Given overall FFG values are naturally lower in fairly
rugged/narrow valley orography of SE OH into WV/SW PA; exceedance
is possible suggesting localized incidents of flash flooding.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7VDXJ1jvOYo8O751Ka04u0LxM3uxEAtCNrEi47doDqoWmrhAoVQBA8QTFqGDK5HTXDF_=
IF2-WEFSqx0I85T48AQBlXg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40847823 40477739 39687814 38608135 38378248=20
            38668314 39368302 39858189=20

=3D =3D =3D
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