Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1596
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 21:59:07

ACUS11 KWNS 072158
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072157=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-072330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1596
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494...

Valid 072157Z - 072330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for a tornado or two and occasional large
hail/wind damage will persist.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells are ongoing across east central and
northeast ND.  The more favorable zone for a tornado or two will
remain along the northwest-southeast oriented baroclinic zone across
extreme northeast ND, where both vertical shear/buoyancy and
vertical vorticity are maximized along and to the immediate cool
side of the front.  Farther south, a couple of storms are ongoing
immediately ahead of the surface wind shift/trough.  Moderate
buoyancy is present through this zone where surface temperatures
have warmed into the mid-upper 70s with mid 60s dewpoints, but
relatively straight hodographs support some potential for large
hail.  Overall, storms are expected to remain semi-discrete and the
severe threat should peak between now and 00z in the zone of modest
forcing for ascent with a midlevel shortwave trough now moving over
northeast ND.

...Thompson.. 07/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6zMGuu5vYTAzRINU5JMBiUbSACRzwBlqk3-cNgjkqk07tDkErcKIpdCJ9MmAG-VV43JHQzGFD=
cBoQ5Ghim5tC0QqUSE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...

LAT...LON   48559704 48019652 47659661 47209705 47099739 47159806
            47649791 48189811 48439842 48659834 48699780 48559704=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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