Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1595
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 20:29:12

ACUS11 KWNS 072028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072028=20
NEZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...south-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 072028Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of large hail/damaging winds
expected to to continue. Watch issuance is possible but remains
uncertain in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar shows a few isolated storms
that have developed during peak heating amid a very unstable
airmass, characterized by MLCAPE values nearing 3000 J/kg. Deep
layer shear has remained somewhat marginal thus far, perhaps
approaching 30-35 kt, but is forecast to increase with time. Thus,
storms should exhibit supercell characteristics, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats. Southeasterly low-level flow is
promoting at least some elongation of hodographs, but low-level
shear remains weak in general. Thus, the tornado threat appears low
but cannot be ruled out. These storms are expected to remain
isolated, and thus, watch issuance is not anticipated in the short
term. However, convective trends will be monitored should a watch be
needed for the region.

...Karstens/Hart.. 07/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_MK1gsLK6hEuWNotGAkQkEtuNgZ9ZGnMsN0s8PcpB1tKIZoaQFYFtD5Atpakri_jt3fvRu7kD=
SdYBpbqLO7CZd_D4KU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40169732 40119843 41029906 41829869 41969762 41529693
            40989700 40169732=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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