Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1594
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 20:04:46

ACUS11 KWNS 072003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072003=20
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1594
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Far northeast New York...northern Vermont and New
Hampshire...and into central Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 072003Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may pose a severe wind/hail
risk through the afternoon and early evening hours. This threat is
expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery shows a gradual
maturation of convection across far northeast NY and across central
ME along/ahead of a cold front. Temperatures warming into the low
80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s is slowly eroding
inhibition with MLCAPE increasing to around 500-1000 J/kg region
wide. This warming trend should continue and will promote further
thunderstorm intensification over the next couple of hours. 30-40
knot mid-level winds in proximity to a weakening upper trough are
supporting sufficient hodograph elongation for organized convection.
While convective mode will likely transition to predominantly a
semi-organized convective band due to strong flow along the
initiating cold front, an initial supercell or two appears possible
and may pose a severe hail/wind risk through the afternoon -
especially across central ME where forcing for ascent is currently
more nebulous. With time, strong to severe winds should become the
predominant hazard as a band of storms begins to emerge. Despite
these concerns, the overall severe threat is expected to remain
sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance.

...Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9Mtjts6aq53f1bgYg0Fp5kVoAybU6vf3py011JjZawVfYnnhI8lxXpYMg5OdUxo69-lVSIb-x=
-IBYCFfL50gTJ1OmfI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   44976732 44926764 44217268 44037357 43907416 43957473
            44217494 44497457 44877394 45047328 45057156 45177116
            45667061 46077007 45996787 45926754 45766700 45456690
            45146705 44976732=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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