Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 20:00:25 ACUS01 KWNS 072000 SWODY1 SPC AC 071958 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats. Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast. ....20z Update Northern Plains... The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this should focus storm development and severe potential along the boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening. Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado or two. Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA. Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential. ....Central High Plains... Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info. ....OH Valley/Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for current frontal/storm position slightly farther east. ...Lyons.. 07/07/2025 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/ ....SD/NE/KS/CO... A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD. Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday) and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening. It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by that time is uncertain. ....OH to ME... A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind gusts. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .