Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 19:30:09 AWUS01 KWNH 071930 FFGMPD TXZ000-080030- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...Southern Big Country & Edwards Plateau of west-central Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 071930Z - 080030Z SUMMARY...Clusters seeking out remaining unstable environment.=20 Still remains capable of 2"/hr rates and scattered incidents of flash flooding remain likely for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows clusters of thunderstorms starting to shift west and southward as modest cold pools are supporting forward propagation/outflow boundaries. GOES-E Visible also shows congested confluent inflow bands responding to the thunderstorm clusters especially across Schleicher and Sutton counties while more traditional cu streets show solid inflow from the south across Edwards and W Kerr county. This is a signal of competing environments for thunderstorm activity through the evening.=20 Inflow and increased insolation enhancing unstable environment exist west toward the eastern Pecos River Valley and W Concho Valley; while better deep layer moisture axis and upper-level outflow support exists eastward toward the I-35 corridor. Some low level drying combined with 700-300mb drying aloft noted in the CIRA LPW shows gradient of total PWats decreasing from 2" to 1.4" near the Pecos River, though MLCAPE axis of 2000-2500 J/kg connects from the Rio Grande Valley into the Pecos Valley. Aloft, the sheared 700-500mb axis remains very moist from the Hill country northeastward with best vorticity center remaining north of the current complex, likely maintaining the 15-20kts of southerly confluent inflow along the southwest edge of the complex. Entrance region to eastern side of larger scale ridge over northern Old Mexico into the Permian basin combined with approach of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell over the Gulf supports solid divergence/outflow aloft but east of the best low level forcing.=20=20 As such, convection is likely to continue to propagate along the outflow and into the southerly inflow and unstable environment.=20 This will maintain some stronger cells but likely with drier air ingestion, will limit rainfall efficiency (espcially compared to prior days or even this morning) as well as still encouraging forward propagation limiting overall totals. Still rates up to 2"/hr and localized spots of 2-4" remain possible especially given increased probability of colliding outflows and storm scale interactions including cell mergers. In these very isolated incidents, focused/localized flash flooding will still be likely, but those incidents should be reducing with time toward 00z given increasing disconnect between best forcing elements. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5dwlZjIU2ReKfU4dHqG4642MpY5LWm_7bfSPFDsWm0U-Xr0O7Ooi_vnS0ViZ62Si1n5X= KYWHF25VgrYssLegsB_sVfQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32599955 32289951 31039952 29680007 29640096=20 29950156 30530178 31300165 31780128 32060093=20 32500005=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .