Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1591
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 18:28:31

ACUS11 KWNS 071828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071827=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-072030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into the Middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071827Z - 072030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to move to the
southeast through the afternoon with an attendant threat for
sporadic damaging gusts. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Over the past couple of hours, scattered thunderstorms
have developed within a weak confluence/differential heating zone in
place from eastern AR to Middle TN. Recent vertically integrated
liquid imagery shows several deeper convective cores developing as
daytime heating drives MLCAPE values into the 1000-1500 J/kg range.
Regional VWPs are all sampling very weak winds throughout the
column, suggesting that storm longevity, organization, and the
overall severe threat will likely be very limited. Consequently,
watch issuance is not expected; however, low-level lapse rates are
increasing to around 8 C/km ahead of the convective band, coupled
with the high-water content of the air mass (PWATs between 1.75 to 2
inches), will promote strong downward accelerations of water-loaded
downdrafts. As such, a few sporadic strong to severe gusts (most
likely 45-60 mph) will be possible as storms migrate southeast into
the axis of higher moisture/MLCAPE.

...Moore/Hart.. 07/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-LZSZ_Rc2DZa3J_Syqo3OPgc4xAnvg-W9JvtsmMOuhFadtt4J5Bv-KlDM8QEKUmL00p_p_XxP=
KLn64yYG4cUc8sSTFc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34889167 35059123 35199063 35239012 35318926 35398895
            35628849 35988766 36438683 36608643 36768607 36788586
            36768543 36658515 36528483 36278467 35928467 35548484
            35258515 34988555 34848602 34688657 34538704 34358789
            34059007 34089091 34189126 34329153 34449168 34629176
            34889167=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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