Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 11:54:35 AWUS01 KWNH 071154 FFGMPD TXZ000-071650- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0610 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 753 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 071150Z - 071650Z SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding remains possible this morning for portions of central TX. The potential for hourly rainfall of 1-3 inches will exist, but mostly isolated in nature within widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES19 IR satellite imagery shows developing showers and thunderstorms this morning across central TX within the vicinity of a sheared out remnant MCV. This MCV from Sunday afternoon has become rather difficult to find in satellite imagery as of 11Z. Extrapolating known placement from earlier, it is perhaps in the vicinity of Fredericksburg but it has lost the origination it contained earlier. In addition, a diffuse outflow boundary remained from near LHB to just west of SAT and then southwestward toward the middle Rio Grande Valley. Both of these features may not play a significant role in the future convective evolution over central TX but they are features to note nonetheless. The long-lived 700 mb low/trough over central TX has become more elongated and is forecast to slowly shift west during the morning hours. This is expected to encourage the minor expansion of weak low level southerly flow into the Edwards Plateau and remaining portions of central TX. With the onset of daytime heating through existing cloud cover, erosion of low level convective inhibition is expected to allow for the further development of shower and thunderstorms across portions of central TX. Weak deeper layer winds (weak steering flow) will support locally heavy rain with potential for back-building and brief training of cells. The high PW environment (near 2 inches), will be capable of producing 1 to 3 inch hourly rainfall totals in a widely scattered fashion across the region. Remaining sensitivity of near saturated grounds across the region could allow for a couple of areas of flash flooding through about 17Z. Recent 10Z HRRR seems to be under-forecasting current activity, so it is worth watching radar trends should convection become even more widespread given the weak steering flow currently in place this morning. Snell/Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PRYUqY_aYEO19sV2Arpd43xH9exLcrfseYKHaTqOaTsoIdEKqQtqjxtdbjylKk01lbZ= fvXWC_SMCjMUYXiyZBpWrCw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 32189859 32059761 31499726 30689743 29779799=20 29289875 29329954 29829994 30649987 31669939=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .