Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 05:39:59 AWUS01 KWNH 070538 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-071000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0609 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 137 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...far northern NC into southern and central VA Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 070536Z - 071000Z Summary...Heavy rain associated with T.D. Chantal will continue to spread northward into VA overnight. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected with additional totals of 2-4 inches possible through 11Z. Flash flooding remains likely, especially early on, although some decrease in the threat may occur by later this morning. Discussion...05Z radar imagery showed the core of Chantal's heaviest rainfall occurring south of Halifax, VA, along and just north of the NC/VA border. This area of heavy rain was displaced roughly 20-40 miles north of the surface low due to vertical tilting of the cyclone structure toward the north and west with height and heavy rain tied to the mid-level center. Observed hourly rainfall within the relatively compact cluster of heavy rain has been 1.0 to 2.5 inches between 04-05Z and movement has been toward the NNE over the past 3 hours. Trends in satellite imagery showed infrared cloud tops warming overall but with occasional bursts of colder cloud tops over southern VA. A continued translation of Chantal's mid-level center toward the northeast is expected over the next 3-5 hours, following steering between troughing to the west and a ridge over the western Atlantic. RAP forecasts indicate some weakening of low level convergence northwest of Chantal's surface low between 06Z-09Z, along with lowering instability which may act to decrease rainfall intensity and the threat for flash flooding. However, tropical moisture with PW values up to about 2.3 inches and favorable outflow within the northern semicircle of the system's circulation will continue to support bursts of heavier rain. The slow movement of Chantal will continue to favor areas of flash flooding over southern VA, especially in the short term, with the flash flood threat continuing into central VA later this morning. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!98f-bI9RCxZyYQssHzTws1URD__m8M1DAIfiJOYdxxW6MXZoL4KgOTCSen5tp9saGsjb= sxOqnfGFJVrbMAQmbqxJLF8$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC... LAT...LON 37977773 37557751 36867780 36347848 36287912=20 36567934 37257901 37877839=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .