Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 04:35:59 AWUS01 KWNH 070435 FFGMPD TXZ000-070900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1235 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025 Areas affected...parts of central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 070434Z - 070900Z SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase across portions of central TX over the next few hours with areas of slow movement and locally heavy rainfall. Localized hourly rainfall in the 1 to 3 inch range is expected, possibly leading to isolated flash flood concerns across the region. DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery across central TX appeared to be showing the beginning stages of renewed shower/thunderstorm development as of 04Z just east of I-35 from Austin to Jarrell. GOES East infrared imagery helped place a remnant MCV in the vicinity of Llano County, embedded within broader cyclonic flow tied to an elongated 700 mb low/trough that has been lingering over central TX, evident on 700 mb VAD wind plots. At the surface, a remnant rain-cooled outflow boundary was analyzed from just southeast of LHB to near BAZ and southwest to COT. Since 00Z, increased 925-850 mb wind speeds of 15-25 kt at KGRK and KEWX match RAP depictions of winds in this layer, which has helped to support an northward increase in MLCAPE past I-10 into portions of central TX. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed a plume of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE nosing northward from the middle TX coast into the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Dallas/Fort Worth containing little to no inhibition. RAP forecasts indicate 925-850 mb winds are near their peak in the short term, with slight weakening over the east and westward translation of relatively stronger wind speeds toward 09Z. However, the circulation around the remnant MCV and presence of the outflow boundary and overrunning potential within the high PW environment (2.0 to 2.3 inches via SPC mesoanalysis data) is expected to continue to support scattered shower and thunderstorm development over the next few hours. Weak steering flow and the relatively stronger low level flow will support the potential for training and back-building of cells. While the coverage of these cells remains a bit uncertain, the environment will be capable of generating 1-3 in/hr rainfall totals. Given the continuing sensitivity of soils across portions of the region, renewed flash flood concerns through 09Z appear possible. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Oax3ELJFf2URWGzPpp_XFZ3KFiak_ywVyZLeak6zYPvtTw9XK9CM6JsaeAcbhXccxdA= 4QpHPQrXjwNBgAaBh88XvIs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 31739711 31279664 30439657 29439708 28919834=20 28899895 29159973 29749994 30319974 30649943=20 31089860 31429816=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .