Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1586
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 02:16:20

ACUS11 KWNS 070215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070215=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490...

Valid 070215Z - 070345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts continues with an evolving
cluster of storms.

DISCUSSION...At the intersection of two outflow boundaries over far
eastern CO, a cluster of thunderstorms is attempting to grow
upscale. Over the next couple hours, a 30-kt low-level jet (sampled
by the GLD VWP) and around 40 kt of deep-layer shear may promote the
maintenance or even slight intensification of the cluster as it
tracks slowly southeastward -- especially if it can favorably merge
with additional storms/outflow farther south. While gradual
nocturnal boundary-layer cooling casts some uncertainty on the
potential for additional intensification/organization, the focused
low-level jet and modest boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s/lower
60s dewpoints) may offset this to an extent. The primary concern
will be severe wind gusts, especially if localized upscale growth
can occur.

...Weinman.. 07/07/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4RQ4XOmbOCBw2mtTfW4S-g12Z3XZN2eCwtm1uOYnWD0_T1lAz62q9lOUVbF9PFTJ_XJd-jno_=
qVWUbO2QY7-B4aQz3U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38750329 39260335 39750317 40000284 40120235 40040170
            39560110 39260115 38750131 38390234 38500299 38750329=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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