Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 07 2025 00:08:47 AWUS01 KWNH 070007 FFGMPD VAZ000-NCZ000-070500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 807 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025 Areas affected...Southern VA...Northern NC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 070000Z - 070500Z SUMMARY...Chantal continues to produce Excessive Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr as it slowly tracks northeastward this evening. Additional flash flooding is likely with the potential for life-threatening impacts in affected areas. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms associated with Chantal are more aligned with the storm's mid-level circulation as the surface circulation remains farther south, or just north of Fayetteville. Doppler Radar showed the core of heaviest rainfall occurring from Chapel Hill and the western suburbs of Durham on west along I-40 and just east of Greensboro. Latest guidance shows Chantal slowly inching its way northeast this evening while still maintaining the heaviest rainfall north and west of Chantal's low-mid level circulation. Along its path, PWATs are over 2.0" and in some cases approaching 2.4" according to RAP mesoanalysis. RAP soundings within the core of heaviest rainfall depict classic warm rain processes that exist within the core of a tropical cyclone: skinny CAPE aloft (between 250-750 J/kg MUCAPE), > 90% sounding saturation nearly all the way to the tropopause, and warm cloud layers nearly 16,000ft deep. This is likely to remain the case as Chantal moves north and east this evening. Recent observations show as much as 2.6" in one hour have fallen just southwest of Durham with the storm only inching its way northeast at the moment. The storm should continue to gradually weaken along its track, but when taking area-averaged soundings around the Chantal using the HAFS-A model, steering flow within the 300-850mb layer at 06Z tonight was SW at ~10 kts. Meanwhile, the storm will still maintain a healthy SErly IVT that wraps around the storm and along its western flank. Latest 18Z HREF does show the gradually diminishing precipitation rates as the night progresses, but the highly saturated profiles combined with lingering MUCAPE and its slow progression makes flash flooding a big concern from north-central NC to south-central VA tonight. Over the past 6-hours, portions of central North Carolina have seen anywhere from 2-5" of rainfall with localized totals topping 7". Expect similar totals once again over the next 6 hours from the western suburbs of the Raleigh-Durham metro area on north into far south-central VA. Significant to life-threatening flooding impacts within its narrow corridor of heaviest rainfall is likely this evening. Mullinax ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5drWCsuVAqPTmXDIy4JloDPZsxRv94piSGl5o6KI3nsYxoEyXt8A-MdMex1Us5yGplTC= DYv97gKNYKLesfZBUhuQeH0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC... LAT...LON 37017881 37007850 36847821 36547832 36137860=20 35677888 35547920 35667951 35917964 36197962=20 36657939 36897915=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .