Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1584
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 23:04:29

ACUS11 KWNS 062304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062303=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-070030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1584
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0603 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...northwest KS...and southwest
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...490...

Valid 062303Z - 070030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489, 490
continues.

SUMMARY...A focused/favorable corridor for large hail and severe
wind gusts is evident over the central High Plains for the next few
hours -- within Severe Thunderstorm Watches 489/490.

DISCUSSION...An intense, nearly stationary supercell has evolved out
of a cluster of storms over far northeastern CO. Farther west, a
separate cluster of storms is showing signs of upscale growth. To
the southeast of this activity, a gradually stalling outflow
boundary is arcing northwestward from northwest KS into northeastern
CO. This outflow boundary may provide a focused mesoscale corridor
for the maintenance of the supercell (and additional nearby
convection) with southeastward extent into this evening. Along this
corridor, around 40 kt of effective shear (locally boosted/enhanced
along the boundary) and moderate surface-based instability will
favor large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and
severe wind gusts with any established supercells/clusters. Some
upscale growth may also occur with time, as the western cluster may
have a tendency of merging with the downstream storms/supercells --
posing an increasing risk of severe-wind gusts into this evening.

...Weinman.. 07/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9gOIgretH00eKDdPYDHGRnaQcaWdL-vkQe9taLEdbVHH2r1XNuRpt4HmtuBPn-89bYCNm2Q_I=
XG0ENIQhc9sEAQRb8k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39890262 40070379 40310432 40510443 41030408 41510398
            41740355 41700294 41480238 40730187 39900146 39630170
            39610203 39710228 39890262=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.