Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1583
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 06 2025 21:55:18

ACUS11 KWNS 062155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062154=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1583
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0454 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Parts of southern Kansas...northern Oklahoma...and
the far eastern TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 062154Z - 070000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are
possible with the stronger storms into this evening. A watch is not
currently expected, though convective trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered outflow-dominant thunderstorms are
evolving along a stalled surface boundary from southern KS into
northern OK. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a warm/moist boundary
layer are yielding strong surface-based buoyancy ahead of these
storms. While the environment is favorable for sporadic severe
downbursts and isolated large hail, generally weak deep-layer
flow/shear limits confidence in storm organization/longevity.
Therefore, a watch is not currently expected, though convective
trends are being monitored.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 07/06/2025

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-ZQNp4kIGdyjqjn0yCX2OKcWyQVLtwbnQYTfEZbJfzYo-V82CaC-LcDtnTbC7soDnHcgDpDUF=
yE8pRfKAA--cyWY4NA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38029696 38089627 37719574 37229576 36879632 35809946
            35849996 36210018 36500025 36890010 37249965 38029696=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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